Bitcoin Stalls Around $60,000 as Analyst Sees Risk of a Drop to $40,000

Bitcoin is stuck below key moving averages, while onchain signals and pressure around Strategy point to a weaker market structure. That has analysts watching for a deeper pullback.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has been stuck between $59,000 and $60,000 for five days, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages continue to slope lower.
• FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich says the current consolidation looks risky for bulls and still fits a downtrend.
• Weak demand, long-term holder capitulation, and pressure around Strategy are adding to the downside risk, with $40,000 now in the conversation.

Bitcoin has spent the past five days trading in a narrow band between $59,000 (€51,700) and $60,000 (€52,600). The price action may look quiet, but traders are paying close attention: bitcoin is holding below the levels that triggered rebounds earlier in February and earlier this month, while both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are still trending lower.

Bearish Setup Under Pressure

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, told CoinDesk in an email that this is a “rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls.” He said the current setup is very different from bitcoin’s 2024 consolidation, when the asset mostly moved sideways inside a broader uptrend between March and October. This time, he said, the same kind of price behavior is playing out in a bear market, which makes it look more like a continuation of the downtrend than the start of a bottom.

Onchain data is backing up that cautious view. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed to signs that long-term holders are beginning to capitulate, meaning they are selling at a loss. In previous cycles, that kind of behavior often showed up near attractive entry points for buyers, but in the short term it usually signals that selling pressure is still building.

Weak Demand and Extra Supply

There is also little evidence that demand is stepping in to absorb the move lower. Active addresses and transaction counts stayed near the bottom of their recent range during the decline, which suggests buyers are still hesitant. At the same time, the situation around Strategy is adding another layer of pressure to the market.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, saw its preferred stock STRC drop to a record low near $71 (€62) last week. Its common shares fell 25 percent over the same week and closed at their lowest level since February 2024. The company then said it could sell more than $1 billion (€0.9 billion) in bitcoin to shore up its financial position, a sharp departure from founder Michael Saylor’s earlier “never sell” message. The board has also authorized management to sell from the reserve whenever needed, without asking for separate approval on each sale.

Why This Matters

For European crypto readers, this matters because bitcoin is being shaped by more than just its own chart. A stronger U.S. dollar tends to weigh on dollar-priced assets, while money has also been rotating into stocks more often over the past month, helped by optimism around AI spending. That makes bitcoin’s current range near $60,000 (€52,600) more meaningful than a routine sideways stretch.

The combination of a firm dollar and weak risk appetite has also influenced bitcoin’s recent moves, as reflected in the strong negative correlation with the yen.