Bitcoin Trails Stocks as Analysts Point to a Rebound

Hashdex and Charles Schwab point to expanding institutional infrastructure, stablecoins, and tokenized assets, while Bitcoin’s post-halving cycle still matters.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is trading just below $62,000 and still trails stocks, while U.S. tech funds are getting a boost from the AI hype.
• Hashdex says the weakness looks more like a rotation in capital than a sign of deeper trouble, even as institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and onchain activity continue to build.
• Charles Schwab says Bitcoin’s sluggish recovery lines up with earlier post-halving cycles, with potential selling pressure near $95,000 production costs.

Bitcoin is still hovering just under $62,000 (€54,200), leaving it well behind the latest highs in stocks. By contrast, U.S. tech funds have been among the main beneficiaries of the AI hype. Still, new views from Hashdex and Charles Schwab suggest the gap may be more about where money is going right now than about any lasting weakness in crypto.

Capital Is Flowing Somewhere Else

Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at Hashdex, argues that crypto’s recent underperformance says more about investor positioning than about the sector itself. In his midyear outlook, he says narratives and attention tend to steer capital, and that AI infrastructure, IPO pipelines, and macro trades tied to rate expectations are currently absorbing much of that flow.

Even so, Hashdex says that rotation is obscuring several trends that support crypto’s long-term case. Institutional infrastructure continues to expand across banks, brokers, and payment companies, while U.S. regulation has become clearer and could improve further if Congress passes the CLARITY Act this summer.

Onchain activity is also still moving higher. Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of this year had already surpassed the full-year total for 2025, tokenized real-world assets are up more than 60% this year, and total transactions across the crypto ecosystem reached a record in the second quarter. Kerbage says that leaves market value and onchain usage unusually far apart, a gap he does not expect to last forever.

The Halving Pattern Still Holds Weight

Charles Schwab comes to a similar conclusion, but its focus is on Bitcoin’s historical cycle. Jim Ferraioli, director of digital currencies research and strategy at Schwab, says the current recovery looks a lot like earlier post-halving periods, even though many investors expected institutional adoption and spot ETFs to finally break the four-year rhythm.

A halving cuts the reward for miners roughly every four years, which slows the pace of new Bitcoin entering circulation. In previous cycles, that was often followed by strong price gains. Ferraioli notes, though, that Bitcoin has usually taken more than a year to climb back above the production costs of less efficient miners. He puts those costs at about $95,000 (€83,000) today, while the average investor cost basis is around $80,000 (€69,900), a setup that could bring more selling once holders are back in profit.

Ferraioli does not treat the four-year cycle as a strict rule, but he does say it remains deeply embedded in how the market thinks. In his view, the effect of each new cycle may fade over time as Bitcoin gets older and volatility gradually cools.

Why This Matters

For European crypto investors, the main point is that this debate is about more than just price. It is also about how the market is built. If access through ETFs, banks, and brokers keeps widening, Bitcoin could start reacting differently to macro themes like rate expectations and risk appetite. At the same time, the growth in stablecoins and tokenized assets shows that usage and price do not always move in lockstep, making this market less straightforward than in earlier cycles.