Bitwise Sees Bitcoin at $1.6 Million in 2036
Bitwise bases the forecast mainly on Bitcoin’s competition with gold as a store of value. Institutional portfolios and national reserves also play a role, but a much smaller one.
Key Takeaways
- Bitwise estimates that Bitcoin could rise to $1.6 million in 2036, nearly 19 times the starting price of $83,557.
- About 82% of that expected value comes from the store-of-value market, according to Bitwise, mainly because of competition with gold.
- Bitwise points to risks like quantum computing, AI breakthroughs, and a possible policy shift in regulation.
Bitwise estimates that Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million (€1.4 million) in 2036, nearly 19 times the starting price of $83,557 (€75,100). In that model, most of the value depends on one question: how much of the store-of-value market Bitcoin can take from gold.
Gold Drives the Model
According to Bitwise, about $27.5 trillion (€24.7 trillion) of the total $33.6 trillion (€30.2 trillion) comes from the store-of-value category. That accounts for about 82% of the expected Bitcoin value in 2036. The rest of the model comes from other markets, such as institutional portfolios and national reserves, but together they add much less.
Bitwise uses a total market model. In it, the company first estimates how big the market is that Bitcoin can serve, then applies a penetration rate and divides that by the maximum supply of 21 million coins. In the base case, the combined gold and Bitcoin market grows from $31.1 trillion (€27.9 trillion) to $109.8 trillion (€98.6 trillion) by 2036. Bitcoin is assigned 25% of that market.
The Link With Gold
The relationship between Bitcoin and gold plays a big role in that calculation. Bitwise points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold hit a record 0.58 on September 11. The company expects that link could continue in the years ahead and deepen further, although that remains an assumption in the model.
The current price also makes clear how far away the projection still is. Bitcoin recently traded around $80,158 (€72,000), slightly below the previous close. That is still far below Bitwise’s 2036 outcome. The price is also close to the level that analysts recently pointed to, which shows how sensitive the market still is to short-term moves.
What This Means for Investors
For European crypto followers, the main takeaway is that models like this show how strongly Bitcoin is still being compared with gold as a store of value. The outcome depends less on a broad list of markets and more on whether Bitcoin can claim a bigger share of that role. Bitwise also points to risks like quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical breakthroughs, and a possible policy shift in regulation.
