Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood Sink in Stealth Bear Market
Kobeissi sees a stealth bear market: Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood are far below their peaks, while Bitcoin keeps struggling above $80,000 and rate expectations are weighing on risk assets.
Key Takeaways
- Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood are 40% to 56% below their peaks, while the S&P 500 was near a record in October.
- Kobeissi calls this a stealth bear market and puts 20 tech stocks in bear market territory, with AppLovin, Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood at the bottom.
- Bitcoin remains below $80,000 and the weakness is also hitting European crypto followers, mainly because of rate expectations and crypto stocks' sensitivity to regulation.
Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood are now 40% to 56% below their peaks, while the S&P 500 was near a record in October. According to the Kobeissi Letter, that points to a stealth bear market: the broad index looks strong, but a large part of crypto stocks is already deep in the red.
Heavy Hits for Crypto Stocks
Kobeissi puts 20 tech stocks in bear market territory. AppLovin leads that list with a 65% drop, while Coinbase is down 56%, Circle 44%, and Robinhood 40%.
That weakness stands out even more because since March 30, ten stocks have accounted for 70% of the S&P 500's gains. Nvidia alone made up 13% of the index's rise. Micron and Alphabet are also among the biggest contributors, but they are still 24% and 28% below their peaks.
For crypto investors, that shows how big the gap is between the headline index and the stocks tied to crypto. These names are not just moving with Bitcoin, but also with broader risk appetite and demand for growth stocks.
Bitcoin Stays Below $80,000 (€71,900)
Bitcoin is still struggling to stay above $80,000 (€71,900). The price keeps slipping back below that level, even after a U.S. Treasury bond buyback on Tuesday fully used its $6 billion (€5.4 billion) limit without pushing the coin higher.
That fits into a broader environment where higher rate expectations keep weighing on risk assets. In mid-October, the market was still pricing in three more Federal Reserve rate hikes by June 2027, according to Kobeissi, while three rate cuts were still expected at the start of 2026.
What This Means for Europe
For European crypto followers, this matters because the weakness is not just in Bitcoin, but also in publicly traded companies directly tied to crypto. Circle is especially sensitive to the debate around stablecoins, because it issues USD Coin and gets most of its revenue from interest on reserves. That means these stocks can react more sharply to rate expectations and regulation than the broader crypto market itself.
Broader market stress is also part of it: Cantor Sees Bitcoin Bottom Around October in Bear Market previously showed how analysts are looking at a possible turn in the cycle.
