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Drake Loses $1.5 Million on World Cup Final, Whale Nets $3.3 Million

On Polymarket, the World Cup final made one whale millions, while Drake watched his USDT bet on Argentina go up in smoke. Meanwhile, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are pulling in billions in volume.

By Zenz van der Wielen
• 2 min read
Drake Loses $1.5 Million on World Cup Final, Whale Nets $3.3 Million

Key Takeaways

  • Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the World Cup final, which caused big swings in prediction markets.
  • An anonymous whale made $1.35 million on Polymarket by betting on Spain to win the World Cup.
  • Drake lost $1.5 million in USDT on Argentina, while Polymarket and Kalshi logged billions in trading volume during the World Cup.

Spain’s 1-0 extra-time victory over Argentina in the World Cup final triggered sharp moves across prediction markets. An anonymous whale walked away with a $1.35 million (€1.2 million) gain, while rapper Drake lost $1.5 million (€1.3 million) on a crypto wager placed in Tether.

Whale Makes Millions

According to blockchain analytics account Lookonchain, a trader using the handle yamal19 created a fresh Polymarket wallet and then bought about 3.3 million "Yes" shares on Spain to win the World Cup. The shares were purchased at an average price of 59.1 cents each, putting the total stake at roughly $1.95 million (€1.7 million).

Once Spain came out on top, the position settled at $3.3 million (€2.9 million). That left the trader with a profit of $1,349,881 (€1,180,500), or 69.14 percent. It was one of the largest individual wins tied to the tournament.

Drake Misses Again

At the other end of the trade, Drake bet $1.5 million (€1.3 million) in Tether (USDT) on Argentina to win in regulation time. Had that bet landed, the payout would have topped $5 million (€4.4 million). But because the final was decided in extra time, the wager was already dead before Argentina had any chance to pull it off.

The Canadian rapper has also developed a reputation as a bad omen for teams he publicly supports. Fans have dubbed it the "Drake Curse," a reference to the idea that his picks tend to fall just short.

Drake was not the only one who took a hit. A trader using the handle gud.hl placed $1.23 million (€1.1 million) on Argentina at 10 percent odds, aiming for a $12.35 million (€10.8 million) payout. According to Bubblemaps, that stake came from an earlier profit of more than $1 million (€0.9 million) on the TRUMP meme coin, after which the full amount was rolled into the final.

Prediction Markets Keep Gaining Ground

The final also shows just how large prediction markets have become around major sports events. Polymarket recorded $4.33 billion (€3.8 billion) in World Cup-related trading volume during the tournament, while Kalshi posted $1.89 billion (€1.7 billion). Kalshi also said it added 3 million new users over the course of the tournament.

For European crypto readers, the bigger point is that prediction markets are increasingly being viewed as a gray zone between crypto, trading, and regulated investment products. The CFTC has been keeping a close eye on the space for some time, and in May 2026, chair Michael Selig said prediction markets should be treated differently from sports betting, in his view. That makes the debate around these platforms about a lot more than one headline-grabbing soccer wager.

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