Bitcoin Holds Its Grip on the 50-Week Average Despite a Red October
Bitcoin remains above the 50-week average, while CME positions and spot ETF flows paint a mixed picture. Analysts do see signs that a bottom may be forming.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is down 4.10% in October, but it is still trading about 5% above the 50-week average of $75,812.
- Galaxy, Santiment, and Glassnode see signals that could point to a bottom forming, while November remains a historically tough month.
- Big players pulled back partly, but U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have actually added 87,000 BTC since the June bottom.
Bitcoin is heading toward a second straight losing month in October, but the broader trend is still holding up according to several market indicators. The BTC price is down 4.10% this month, while analysts at Galaxy, Santiment, and Glassnode see different signals that could point to a possible bottom. At the same time, November remains a historically tough month to count on.
Technical Support Is Holding
Bitcoin is trading around $79,935 (€71,400), about 5% above the current 50-week average of $75,812 (€67,800). For many traders, that average is an important gauge for the long-term trend because it smooths out short-term swings and shows whether the market is getting structurally stronger or weaker.
Galaxy sees the 200-week average as the bear market floor and the 50-week average as a kind of dividing line between weakness and recovery. Bitcoin tested that floor in June and reclaimed the 50-week average in September after spending 44 weeks below that level. According to Galaxy, in previous cases after reclaiming it, Bitcoin never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaimed level in the following year.
Big Players Pulled Back
It is not just the price, but also positioning that paints a mixed picture. Galaxy says asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have fallen 57% since the week of Bitcoin's all-time high. In addition, nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, cut their reported spot Bitcoin ETF positions by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026.
On the other hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June bottom. That shows that inflows and outflows from big players are not moving in the same direction. It fits the broader picture that institutional demand makes the market less volatile than in earlier cycles, as also shown by the changing Bitcoin cycle.
Why This Matters for Investors
There are also signals on the blockchain itself that fit a cooling market. Glassnode says that about 70% of short-term holder supply is in profit, compared with almost all of it at the end of September. Santiment also reports that Bitcoin has lost about 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, which the company sees as a possible bottom signal.
For European crypto investors, the key point is that Bitcoin is not just reacting to short-term trading here, but also to broader capital flows and macro pressure in the U.S. Galaxy points to rising U.S. national debt and the large budget deficit as background for the long term, although the company itself says that says little about the price in the short term. Over the next few days, the area around $79,000 (€70,600) remains especially important, because Santiment sees a close below that level as weakness and a move back toward $82,500 (€73,700) as confirmation of recovery.
