Galaxy Cuts Clarity Act Odds to 50%
Galaxy says the crowded Senate calendar and slow-moving negotiations are making it harder for the bill to advance. The proposal would clarify how crypto oversight is split between the SEC and CFTC in the U.S.
Key Takeaways
- Galaxy Research is lowering its odds that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 from 60% to 50%.
- Lead researcher Alex Thorn says the biggest issues are the crowded Senate calendar and the lack of progress in talks.
- The Clarity Act is designed to make the split in crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC easier to understand.
Galaxy Research has trimmed its estimate for the Clarity Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month. Lead researcher Alex Thorn said the main drag is the tight schedule in the United States Senate, along with negotiations over the bill text that have barely moved forward.
Senate Schedule Is Filling Up
In a note Friday, Thorn said the odds now look like a coin flip because the Senate calendar is getting more crowded and a deal appears further off than it did a few weeks ago. He framed the downgrade as a timing issue rather than a problem with the bill itself.
The Clarity Act has been a major part of the U.S. debate over crypto regulation for months. The bill is meant to define how oversight of crypto is divided between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with the CFTC taking the lead on most crypto assets. For the industry, that kind of framework matters because it would give the market structure rules more clarity.
Political Pressure Is Building
Galaxy had already reduced the odds of passage to 60% on June 5, but since then lawmakers still have not set a floor date or scheduled a motion to proceed. Thorn said Senate leader Thune needs to clarify floor time by early July at the latest, or the bill could slip to September.
Adding to the pressure, President Donald Trump has put more strain on the calendar. Last week, he said he would withhold his signature from a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, which makes an already crowded Senate schedule even tighter. Thorn said that development further reduces the Clarity Act’s odds.
Why This Matters
For European crypto watchers, the main point is that the Clarity Act is one of the biggest U.S. attempts to put crypto market structure into law. The final outcome could influence how regulators, exchanges, and other crypto companies organize their U.S. operations. That makes the bill’s timing more than just a political question, since the broader crypto market is watching it closely.
