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Mystery Polymarket Account Makes Millions After Spain's Surprising World Cup Match

An anonymous Polymarket account booked millions in profit after the 0-0 draw between Cabo Verde and Spain. The eye-catching trade raises questions about information advantages and market integrity.

By Mike Hesp
• 2 min read
Mystery Polymarket Account Makes Millions After Spain's Surprising World Cup Match

Key Takeaways

  • Cabo Verde drew 0-0 with Spain at the World Cup, which led to big wins on Polymarket.
  • The account 'fishalive' made more than $9 million by betting against Spain.
  • Polymarket offers transparent blockchain transactions, but users stay pseudonymous and the platform remains controversial.

The surprising 0-0 draw between World Cup debutant Cabo Verde and favorite Spain led to huge profits on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket. A new account, 'fishalive', turned about $4 million into more than $9 million in profit in just a few hours by betting against Spain, according to Polymarket's public trading data.

Unexpected Result and Risky Bets

Cabo Verde, making its first World Cup appearance without any well-known pro players, held Spain, the reigning European champion and tournament favorite, to a scoreless draw. The 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha was named player of the match. The account 'fishalive' placed two bets: that Spain would not win and that Cabo Verde would stay under 2.5 goals. Both bets paid off when the match ended 0-0.

At the same time, another trader lost nearly $1 million by betting on a Spain win, a result that would have only returned a small profit of about $85,000. That gap highlights the risks and opportunities on Polymarket, where prices reflect the odds of outcomes and bets are paid out in USDC.

Transparency and Anonymity on Polymarket

Polymarket runs on blockchain technology and uses stablecoins for settlement, which makes transactions transparent. Every position is recorded on-chain, making it possible to track 'fishalive's' huge profit in real time. At the same time, users operate under pseudonyms, which raises questions about where the information behind these risky and successful bets came from.

Although Polymarket recently received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate, the platform is still debated because it does not have the same kind of traditional regulation as conventional sportsbooks. That makes it appealing, but also controversial, especially given earlier cases of suspected insider trading.

Why This Matters for European Crypto Users

For European crypto investors, this event shows how blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket create new opportunities and risks in sports betting. The mix of transparent transactions and anonymous users can lead to massive wins, but it also raises questions about fairness and market integrity. That could matter for European regulation and the development of similar platforms in the region.

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