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Prediction Markets Expect Billions in Volume Thanks to the 2026 World Cup

Bernstein sees the 2026 World Cup as a turning point for prediction markets, with billions in extra volume in sight. Which players stand to benefit is explained here.

By Mike Hesp
• 2 min read
Prediction Markets Expect Billions in Volume Thanks to the 2026 World Cup

Key Takeaways

  • Bernstein calls the 2026 World Cup the biggest volume and trading moment ever for prediction markets.
  • The tournament, with 48 teams and 104 matches, could generate more than $3 billion in extra trading volume, according to Bernstein.
  • DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Kalshi are expected to benefit from the growing interest in prediction markets, according to the article.

The start of the FIFA World Cup 2026, which kicks off today in North America, marks what Bernstein analysts say is the biggest volume and trading moment ever for prediction markets. These platforms, where users trade contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events like sports games and elections, see the World Cup as a chance to keep growing beyond political events.

Growth and Impact of the 2026 World Cup

With 48 teams taking part and 104 matches on the schedule, the tournament offers more than 60% more trading opportunities than past editions. It also lands during a period that usually sees less activity in online sports betting. Bernstein expects the event to generate more than $3 billion (€2.6 billion) in extra trading volume and push total consumer activity in prediction markets up by $5 billion (€4 billion) to $10 billion (€8.7 billion).

Bernstein sees DraftKings as the biggest winner of the tournament, partly because of its unique position in states like California, Texas, and Florida, where traditional sports betting is limited. Its DraftKings Predictions product could bring in up to 650,000 new accounts during the World Cup, bringing the total to around 2 million. Its focus on the Spanish-speaking market through Telemundo and a specially built app plays a big role here.

Innovations and Competition in the Market

Robinhood is using the World Cup to launch Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, giving the company more control over trading costs and revenue. With billions of contracts traded in 2025 and 2026, this product line is growing fast and becoming an important source of income.

Coinbase is also making quick progress through its partnership with Kalshi, which offers World Cup contracts as part of a broader strategy to attract non-crypto users. Kalshi is strengthening its market position with 57% market share, while rival Polymarket is seeing a decline.

The broader crypto infrastructure around the tournament is also getting more attention. According to another report, the start of the World Cup marks the biggest crypto integration ever, including official partnerships and the first official prediction market tied to the event.

Relevance for the European and Dutch Market

Although the platforms discussed are mainly active in the United States, the growth of prediction markets around major sports events like the World Cup could also matter in Europe. The success of these platforms shows how sports betting and financial markets are increasingly coming together, which could create new opportunities and challenges for European providers and regulators. These developments may point to broader acceptance and integration of blockchain-based prediction markets in the mainstream financial world.

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