SpaceX Falls Below IPO Price, and Meta Is Now the Better Comparison

The stock’s drop puts the August lock-up and SpaceX’s first earnings report on August 4 in sharper focus. The Meta comparison also shows how much valuation and control can shape the story.

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX closed last week around $115, about 15% below the $135 IPO price and nearly 49% below the June peak.
• SpaceX will report results for the first time on August 4, and after that, up to 911.5 million shares could become freely tradable.
• Meta is seen as a better comparison than Tesla because of the heavy hype, high valuation, and dual-class share structure at the time of its listing.

SpaceX is now trading below its listing price, leaving investors to wonder whether the pullback is just a pause or the start of a deeper slide. The stock ended last week near $115 (€101), roughly 15% under the $135 (€119) price set for its June 12 debut. For anyone who bought on day one, the position is already in the red, and a major unlock is set to hit in August.

From Strong Debut to Sharp Drop

SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at $135 (€119) apiece, bringing in nearly $75 billion (€65.9 billion). That gave the company an unusually large debut from the start and valued it at about $1.77 trillion (€1.6 trillion). The first few sessions were still full of momentum: the stock opened at $150 (€132), finished its first day around $161 (€141), and later climbed as high as $225.64 (€198) on June 16.

The mood changed after that. On July 22, the shares dropped 6.7% to $115.26 (€101), putting them almost 49% below the June high. According to the prospectus and subsequent trading levels, the company’s market value has since slipped back to around $1.52 trillion (€1.3 trillion). Sentiment was already under pressure from delays with Starship, new financing at rival Blue Origin, and reports that China successfully landed a Long March 10B booster.

August Could Change the Picture

The next few weeks matter more than the recent price action alone. SpaceX is scheduled to report results for the first time on August 4, and two trading days later, a large batch of shares could become tradable. The company linked the lock-up to the earnings release, so after the report, as many as 911.5 million shares may be released.

A second group of 455.8 million shares only becomes available if the stock closes 30% above the IPO price, or at $175.50 (€154), on five of the ten days before the earnings date. With the stock sitting near $115 (€101), that threshold is not close right now. In other words, about half of the expected August supply is already off the table, which could take some pressure off the market.

Why Meta Is the Better Fit Here

On the numbers alone, Tesla does not look like the cleanest comparison. Tesla’s IPO was much smaller and came during a more conventional growth phase, while SpaceX came to market with a far larger valuation and a much bigger capital raise. Meta, then still Facebook, is a closer match because its 2012 listing also came with a lot of hype, a rich valuation, and a founder who kept tight control through a dual-class share structure.

For European crypto and tech readers, the bigger lesson is that lock-up events often reveal more about early investor sentiment than they do about the long-term business case. In SpaceX’s case, the valuation is also tied not just to market excitement, but to the scale of Starlink and its rocket operations. That makes the August earnings report and the coming unlock a real test of how investors are pricing growth, control, and liquidity right now.