What's Important for Bitcoin and Crypto This Week

The Bitcoin price ended last trading week with an increase of about 6 percentage points, after an intermediate peak of US$106,300, to end at US$101,211.

The Bitcoin price ended last trading week with an increase of about 6 percentage points, after an intermediate peak of US$106,300, to end at US$101,211. A day before the inauguration of Donald Trump, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to want to defend this magical price limit for the time being. After a rapid rise, Bitcoin is now back at $107,759.

However, many altcoins fell by the wayside after Donald Trump officially launched a Trump Memecoin early Saturday morning, which drained liquidity from the altcoin sector and temporarily pushed the coin into the top 15 altcoins within 36 trading hours before halving in value. Which relevant economic data will be in the spotlight in addition to the inauguration tonight and in the coming days is clearly shown here.

Key economic data of the week The fourth trading week of January is entirely devoted to the inauguration of the new American president today. Since the US stock markets are closed on January 20 for Martin Luther King Day, it will be interesting to see how the crypto market fares on that day. Volatile moves in Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are expected. On his first day in office, Trump plans the first decrees for the crypto sector. Furthermore, the trading week is largely without major events. Only in the second half of the week will economic data start to flow with the latest figures on initial jobless claims in the US. As the week ends, investors will be watching closely. First, the Japanese central bank BOJ will announce its current interest rate decision in the early morning hours. The latest sales figures for existing homes on the American housing market will follow later in the day.Moreover, the new season of quarterly reports on the US stock market is gaining momentum. The streaming giant Netflix will publish its operating results for the last quarter after the stock market closes on Tuesday evening. These quarterly figures can serve as a first indicator for the entire tech sector. More relevant company reports will follow with chip manufacturer Texas Instruments on Wednesday evening and credit card issuer American Express before trading hours on Friday. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to provide new insights into the interest rate policy situation in Europe during press conferences on Wednesday afternoon and Friday morning, which could cause volatility in the markets in the event of unexpected statements about the ECB's future monetary policy.

First applications for unemployment benefits on Thursday Thursday, January 23, 2025: At 2:30 PM (CET), investors will be looking forward to the weekly data presented on the first claims for unemployment benefits in the US. After four consecutive declines in the number of applications last week, these were above analysts' expectations for the first time. Whether the robustness of the US labor market will be underlined by strong figures this week remains to be seen. For the current trading week, analysts expect 220,000 new initial claims for unemployment benefits. Paradoxically, if filings are once again below analyst expectations, this could be more bearish, as recent good news from the labor market has been seen as bad news. A continued strong labor market could further reduce the likelihood of a further rate cut on January 29. However, if forecasts are significantly exceeded, this could be considered a warning sign and increase the likelihood of further rate cuts in the coming months. Already last week, the increased applications for unemployment benefits were welcomed by both the stock and crypto markets.Interest rate decision by the Japanese central bank BOJ on Friday Friday, January 24, 2025: At 4:00 am (CET) on Friday morning, the Japanese central bank BOJ will announce its first interest rate decision of the 2025 trading year. After the BOJ unexpectedly raised the key interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25 percent at the end of July 2024, which sent a shockwave through the financial markets, investors are watching Japan intently. Analysts expect a further interest rate increase from 0.25 percentage points to 0.50 percent. If the experts are right, this move could cause further disruptions in the markets and particularly burden the prices of risky assets such as Bitcoin and especially altcoins. The central bank is thus responding to a persistent increase in inflation. However, if the main interest rate remains unchanged or is increased less sharply, a price rally cannot be ruled out either. It will also depend on the statements and choice of words of the central bank chairman during the subsequent press conference. In August 2024, hawkish statements by the chairman of the central bank led to a real crash on the global financial markets after the unwinding of so-called carry trades by institutional investors. Investors should therefore keep an eye on the US dollar/Japanese yen currency pair. A sudden strength in the Japanese currency could indicate similar market behavior as on August 5, 2024.

Sales figures for existing homes close the trading week At 4:00 PM (CET), the latest sales figures for existing homes in the US for the past month will be presented. After better than expected sales figures of 4.15 million homes in the previous month, analysts expect a further improvement in sales figures for September to 4.19 million homes. If analysts' expectations are not met, this could be an additional sign, in addition to the seasonality, that persistently high interest rates on mortgages combined with a still tense housing market continue to deter potential buyers. The interim recovery on the housing market in recent months would thus have come to an end.However, if the estimate is exceeded again, the financial market could view this positively as a sustained recovery from weak levels could reduce the likelihood of another housing market collapse. Investors could see this as a positive sign that the continued strong U.S. labor market is translating into more investment. The market could take this as a positive sign.