Solana Near $106 as Alpenglow and ETF Outflows Clash
Spot SOL ETF flows have turned negative, while the Alpenglow upgrade is set to speed up finality on Solana. Meanwhile, adoption of tokenized assets on the network keeps growing.
Key Takeaways
- Solana is trading around $106 after falling about 15% since the end of September, while a possible head-and-shoulders pattern is starting to show up on the daily chart.
- ETF flows flipped from more than 200,000 SOL of inflows per day to about minus 40,000 SOL per day, according to Glassnode.
- Network adoption keeps growing, and the Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled for today, with faster finality and changes to the validator and voting model.
Solana (SOL) is trading around $106 (€95) after falling about 15% since the late-September peak. On the daily chart, a possible head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, putting $80 (€71) in view as the next key zone. At the same time, network activity is telling a different story, with growing adoption and an upgrade scheduled for today.
Daily Chart Warns
Solana's daily chart still shows higher highs and higher lows. Even so, a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern could be forming within that uptrend. The left shoulder was around $111 (€99) in late August, while the head came in around $125 (€111) in late September after sellers rejected the price at resistance around $120 (€107).
The right shoulder could form around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at about $115 (€103). Falling trading volume since August fits that weaker setup. A daily close below the neckline around $100 (€89) would confirm the pattern. That would bring the support zone around $80 (€71) into focus, about 25% below the current price.
ETF Money Is Flowing Out
The weaker short-term picture lines up with a reversal in ETF flows. According to Glassnode, inflows into U.S. spot SOL ETFs had previously climbed above 200,000 SOL per day on a 7-day average. Those spikes lined up with the moves toward the left shoulder and the head, but in early October the trend flipped after the rejection at higher levels.
Since then, the 7-day average has dropped to about minus 40,000 SOL per day, worth roughly $4.2 million (€3.7 million). That is the deepest negative reading of 2026. For European readers, that matters because it shows how quickly institutional demand can turn, even while network activity itself is still growing.
Adoption and Upgrade Keep Growing
On-chain, Solana is still building. The value of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, is around $4.4 billion (€3.9 billion) and has roughly doubled since early May. That is still just below the late-September peak, despite the correction in SOL. BlackRock and State Street are among the issuers, while Solana also says 1.4 million addresses are holding tokenized stocks on the network.
On top of that comes today's Alpenglow upgrade. It is scheduled for October 21, 2026, and is meant to cut transaction finality from about 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. Validators will need to move to Agave 4.3.0 for that. The upgrade also replaces the current voting model and introduces a fixed access fee per epoch, but the market's main question for now is how the price behaves around $100 (€89) and $115 (€103). A close below $100 (€89) would strengthen the bearish case, while a breakout above $130 (€116) could flip the picture again.
